Some More After Election Thoughts
Losing Now and Winning in the Future
Lawyers, Guns & Money blog has tried to examine why Trump won and how Democrats can work to do better in the future. Rational sorts should constantly be introspective and reason things out, including losses. The details here, however, are somewhat hazy.
I find the debate at this point somewhat unilluminating in various respects. We can theorize reasons. The general conclusion appears that concerns about the economy (though the Biden Administration and Democrats objectively improved the situation while the opposition put forth mumbo jumbo that will worsen the situation) was a major reason. Plus, the power of Trump to impress people.
And, the common midterm pushback, mixed with racism/sexism, and Biden not having the energy or whatever to impress people. Harris also started late. These are not “excuses” as much as explanations. Elections are lost for reasons.
One comment said 2016 was the “normal” and 2020 was an artificial result of COVID leading to Biden’s larger popular vote victory.
I would add racists, sexists, and conservatives would be comfortable with voting for an old white guy who is an institutionalist. Hillary Clinton was an easy target.
Kamala Harris was not quite as easy in certain respects (Clinton opponents had decades on their side) but was in others. Both, needless to say, were objectively the best choice. The margin of error was small enough that there does not have to be some grand epic fail on the side of Democrats though we will get a lot of blather.
Democrats are not akin to Republicans during the 1930s or something. There was really only one real upset in a hard Senate map year and that was the close Pennsylvania race. There were various bits of good news in state races. I talked about this before. It’s just something I put out there so we can remember it.
Some people argue that it is likely Democrats will win back the House of Representatives in 2026. I think that is a reasonable assumption (see 2018) though past events do not necessarily lead to future ones. But what will happen? Will it go back to the Republicans in 2030? It gets quite tiresome.
What does particularly annoy me is that the Republicans objectively screwed up being in the majority. They couldn’t do simple things like appointing a majority leader. Elections should be a way to provide consequences. I know. "Precious child.” Still. What happened? Their majority became a tad narrower.
A few note Republicans won this time because of a North Carolina gerrymander. I’m not impressed with that idea. The gerrymander by one account gave them three votes.
Is it clear that North Carolina, a red state, would have necessarily voted for three more Democrats? Also, redistricting in New York helped the Democrats pick up one or two seats. It was in the margin of error to assume that Democrats in a “clean” race would have won … by a vote? Who knows? And, that is just too close, especially relying on every last Democrat to vote with the rest.
It has been frequently remarked that it seems to have been reserved to the people of this country, by their conduct and example, to decide the important question, whether societies of men are really capable or not of establishing good government from reflection and choice, or whether they are forever destined to depend for their political constitutions on accident and force.
If we want to think for a long time, I think we should try to find a way not to be continuously worried about each election being a test of democracy overall. I was upset about the elections of 2000 and 2004. But 2016-2024 is a different level.
Democrats will have problems if they have to rely on winning 51-49 Senate majorities akin to filling in an inside straight. Or, running against Trump amidst COVID or with the latest “best politician in the generation” on top of the ticket.
Democrats have managed to win statewide cases in red and purple states including with female governors. They need to find a way to do this more often in Congress. Yes, gerrymanders make this harder. The balance there is mixed since many states have addressed the problem and blue states gerrymander sometimes too. Finally, some states are so small that the issue does not come up in this context.
Democrats received a comfortable majority in the last twenty years in various cycles. The discussion about organizing Democrats must include obtaining votes from independents and those who sometimes vote red. I am not upset that “MAGA” voters supported Trump. It is the others (and those who stayed home) that bother me.
There is something called “Murc’s Law’ that holds only Democrats have agency. Trump is expected to be bad. If he is bad, it is the typical “dog bites man” story.
If Biden does something “bad” like pardon Hunter Biden, everyone is all upset. I already covered that. It shows that Democrats get it even when they do things right that “feel” wrong. And, then people have to spend the energy to push back.
Going back to the quote above from the Federalist Papers, written to argue that the Constitution was necessary and proper, Republicans and independents ultimately have a role to play. They need to be convinced that Trump is not appropriate.
When I say “convinced,” I mean a large enough sliver to help the Democrats win. Since Democrats alone have agency, I guess, they also have to find a way to help make this happen. Maybe, people like Barack Obama are helping in a small way.
I do not mean that the Republicans and independents should be the tail that wags the dog. I mean that a comfortable coalition, with some margin for error, will require obtaining more than core Democratic support.
To do so, we will sometimes have to accept bothersome things like the border bill. It’s how the Republican Party formed and how the Democrats obtained their New Deal supermajority—core beliefs with certain compromises.
Oh well. I have nothing profound to say. That’s just some thoughts.
ETA: I think Barack Obama said some good things in the speech that is getting some attention, including the value of pluralism, coalitions, and holding to core principles (red lines, perhaps is the term). I miss President Obama.